Tag Archives: Vernon Wells

Today in bad journalism: Ken Fidlin, Toronto Sun

Now, I don’t claim to be a professional journalist; even though technically I am (I write wire service re-writes for barely minimum wage, so not really), but I can’t help but think that I would be better at it than a lot of people who currently call themselves journalists.

Is that a ‘high horse, down my nose’ opinion?  You’re damn straight it is.  But, why have a blog is you can’t be critical of the stupid shit that sometimes goes on in the profession?

This time ‘round, I’m not referring to Jon Heyman, although we all know my distaste for him; no, no, this time I’m referring to Toronto Sun writer Ken Fidlin.

You see, just hours after the Vernon Wells trade on Friday night, Mr. Fidlin wrote himself an article.  It started off well enough as Fidlin recognized what seemingly every non-MLB Network moron realized; that the this was a deal meant to give the Jays’ franchise a lot more financial flexibility going forward.

Then Fidlin loses me:

“This is all good for the long-term outlook for the franchise, but it can’t be considered anything but an immediate step backward.  Wells, for all the criticism he has borne since he signed that monster $126-million deal after the 2006 season, remained the face of the franchise and a class act in most every way”

As I detailed on Saturday, the acquisition of Napoli alone is comparable to Wells at a fraction of the price.  His career on-base percentage, slugging percentage, (obviously) OPS and walk-rate are all better than Wells’; and he did it in a known pitcher’s ballpark, whereas Wells has spent his career in the SkyDome/Rogers Centre which routinely ranks as one of the more hitter friendly parks in the game.  Not to mention that Napoli is only 29 compared to Wells’ 32.

Acquiring Napoli also removes Wells from centerfield, where his ability has most certainly deteriorated to the point where he can’t really be considered an option there much longer.  Rajai Davis and even Corey Patterson are much better options defensively.  That of course, does not stop Fidlin from saying stupid things.

“…as much as people have been picking at Wells’ defence, he was still good enough to make an all-star team in 2010, providing veteran leadership in the locker room.  The contract was a mistake, a huge overpay as it turned out, but that can’t take away from the contributions he made on and off the field and in the community.”

Oh well shit, he made an All-Star team last year.  I stand corrected on everything!  I forgot that All-Star game selections precluded defensive success and were not totally arbitrary and pretty much useless.  I have been shown the error of my ways!

Although Fidlin is admitting that the Wells contract was a bad one, he is citing that the Jays are worse off because of, among other things, Wells’ contributions on and off the field (which were great, don’t get me wrong) and the fact that he was a leader in the locker room; even though baseball doesn’t really have locker rooms, they have clubhouses, but that’s not important here.

It’s almost as if Fidlin is subtly trying to make the case that Wells’ demeanour and community reputation should allow us to put up with his terrible contract.  Again, Wells was great in this regard, but this trade still cannot be viewed as anything but positive for Toronto.

Then Fidlin decides to comment on what the Jays received in return for Wells; and this is where it’s clear he did not do his research.

“Napoli is an all-or-nothing slugger…coincidentally a similar player to the departed John Buck”

Except that the two are miles apart in both on-base percentage (.346-.301) and slugging percentage (.485-.421), suggesting that Napoli has far more power and is far more patient at the plate.  The only really comparable things are their defence and their batting average, which is clearly where Fidlin stopped his research.

Fidlin then goes on to subtly suggest that along with Jason Frasor and Jose Bautista, the Jays will be overpaying all three in arbitration negotiations.

“[Napoli] will be Toronto’s second-highest paid player behind Jose Bautista. He will join Bautista and Jason Frasor as players who are possibly headed for an arbitration hearing.

Napoli has asked for $6.1 million and the Angels offered him $5.3 million. Bautista is going to be paid at least $7.6 million even if he loses his case, but he will get $10.5 if he wins it.”

Because, you know, three players for one season each whose collective salaries still wouldn’t add up to Wells’ 2011 salary even in the worst-case scenario is clearly a bad financial call.

Fidlin suggests that there are too many corner-infielder/DH/catcher-types on the team without realizing that J.P. Arencibia is by no means a tested talent and could show that he’s not quite ready to handle the everyday catching job just yet; and Adam Lind cannot hit lefties to save his life.

“Napoli’s presence also puts Molina on notice. There are only so many first base/DH at-bats available. Lind is going to get his four swings per game, either at DH or first base. Encarnacion could also end up as a bench player.”

Napoli fits in nicely given his favourable splits and ability to handle both catcher and first base.  I firmly believe that either way, Jose Molina has a spot on this roster in 2011; or at least until Arencibia proves himself to be ready beyond a reasonable doubt.

All of this leads to Fidlin’s final claim:

“There is little question that Anthopoulos and manager John Farrell want to change the offensive approach of this team. Getting Davis installed as the leadoff hitter will be a start, but none of the other newcomers has any of the qualities that haven’t been present in the recent past. This is still a team that will have to rely on the three-run homer and there is one less bat in the middle of the order to deliver it.”

Now, we all know that Juan Rivera was a throw-in to this deal, in order to balance the Angels’ budget, but $5.25-million for one season is nothing compared to $86-million for four, so I’m willing to overlook a player I would hope would never otherwise be a Blue Jay.

Napoli, on the other hand, does bring something different, and it does fit into Anthopoulos and Farrell’s new approach.  He’s a very patient hitter; his career walk rate of 11.1% is actually well above average.

Not only that, but Napoli is a more consistent home run hitter than Wells, so saying the Jays are less capable of hitting the three-run home run is actually quite uninformed.  He said himself that that was the one redeeming quality about Napoli.

Not only that, but Napoli’s ability to get on base should actually increase the ability of the team to hit three-run home runs.

For some reason, Fidlin seems to think that there is a downside to this trade.  When Wells regresses back to his old self this season, he’ll eat his words.

Before you go, here are some interesting links regarding the Wells trade:

MLB Trade Rumors takes a look at the future payroll obligations for the Blue Jays and gives you some reasons to be extremely hopeful if you follow the team.

And the Orange County Register illustrates the Vernon Wells trade in a word cloud from the Angels’ fans and Jays’ fans perspective, pretty freaking hilarious stuff.

The Vernon Wells Trade, Part I: Vernon to Anaheim.

Now that there has been nearly 24 hours to let the Vernon Wells trade absorb into our brain cells, perhaps it’s time for a little analysis of what this trade means for both sides.  First I’ll detail Wells and the Angels and then in the next part, I’ll talk about what the Jays received in return.

I do want to say, as many Jays’ fans are saying, that I like Vernon Wells.  He didn’t live up to his contract, but I don’t blame him for signing it, I blame ownership or J.P. Riccardi or whoever was responsible for signing him to that contract in the first place.

Wells was a team leader and an incredible influence in the Toronto community and the Canadian community at large.  I’ve always loved his deadpan sense of humour and his ability to make any interview entertaining (as evidenced by his numerous encounters with Cabbie on The Score).  Even his play on the field was much of the time at a level rarely seen within this franchise.

As a move to better the franchise, however, I cannot be happier.  It’s nothing personal, but as a fan I’m thrilled at the potential for this deal to open up a kind of Jays’ team that can contend on a yearly basis with the giants of the AL East.

About a week ago when talking about the four most important and polarizing position-players on the Jays, I talked about what I expect to see from Wells going forward.  I think it still holds true now, although it will be interesting to see if playing in Anaheim helps or hurts his numbers.

Here’s what I said at the time:

“Wells had a nice bounce-back year in 2010 after an ’09 that had fans of the team and pundits alike calling for his head on a platter.  He finished with a solid if not spectacular slash line of .273/.331/.515 and hit over 30 home runs for the first time since 2006, a year before signing the massive extension.  He recorded the second-highest WAR rating of his career at 4.0 and although he was still below average defensively, he managed to improve greatly over his previous two seasons, perhaps showing he was healthier than in previous years.

“However, there are some troubling things about Wells’ 2010 that are worth mentioning.

“Vernon got off to a torrid start.  Between Opening Night and May 9th, Wells compiled a .339/.406/.661 line to make for a 1.067 OPS.  He’d hit 9 homeruns and had driven in 25 in only 33 games.  He compiled a walk rate of 9.8% during that time.

“From May 10th through to the end of the year, however, Wells had a much more pedestrian .255/.310/.475 line for a .785 OPS.  He hit 22 more homeruns while driving in 63 and saw his walk-rate drop 27.5% to 7.1%.

“If I was a betting man, I’d say the second set of numbers is more likely what you’ll see from Wells in 2011 and beyond.”

I don’t appear to be alone in thinking Wells will regress in 2011 and beyond.  Bill James predicts a drop to a .269/.328/.467 line, which in terms of slugging percentage is quite a severe drop off; and James also formed that prediction before the trade and I would imagine his park adjusted numbers will suffer in Anaheim.

According to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors, Angel Stadium ranked ahead of only Safeco Field in Seattle and Tropicana Field in Tampa in 2010 in the runs category at 0.864 of the league average, Rogers Centre ranked 8th at 1.058.

In home runs, Angel Stadium ranked 23rd at 0.825, while Rogers Centre was 4th at 1.358; and in hits Angel Stadium ranks 24th, while Rogers centre ranks 11th.

Those factors will not help Wells, although you could make the argument that a potential switch to a corner outfield position and the switch from turf to natural grass could help him stay healthier.

Overall, I really do see Wells’ numbers regressing to a .255/.310/.475-ish line.  I will admit, that on-base percentage is significantly less than his career .329-mark, but that is also helped by a .280 career average, and I don’t see Wells achieving that number in Anaheim.

Could Wells trade open door for a Vladdy return to Canada?

A week or so ago there were a few DH-type players available on the free agent market, speculation was that the Blue Jays could be able to grab one of them.  But then Jim Thome signed in Minnesota for $3-million, Johnny Damon signed with Tampa last night for $5.25-million and so did Manny Ramirez for a ridiculously low $2-million, and finally Andruw Jones inked a deal with the Yankees also for just $2-million.

This leaves Vladimir Guerrero as the only really viable option at DH on the market unless someone sees Russell Branyan as viable.

With the Angels now acquiring Vernon Wells, it likely means that Bobby Abreu will be the full-time DH in Anaheim.  This is significant as it was speculated that Guerrero might be primed for a return to the Angels after a one year hiatus in Texas.

That opens the door for Toronto.

Obviously they can afford Guerrero, especially since Thome, Ramirez and Jones signed for cheap.  They should be able to get him for $3-million or less; in other words less than the Jays paid for both Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch.

Getting Guerrero would give the Jays plenty of flexibility at several positions: Adam Lind can play first and DH and is adept at hitting righties while getting owned by lefties; Edwin Encarnacion can DH, play first and third base; Mike Napoli can catch, play first and DH and he absolutely tears apart left-handed pitching.

Trading Wells has opened some serious doors; Jays’ fans should be thrilled.

UPDATE: Of course, as my luck would have it today, right after I post that, MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Guerrero is close to signing in Baltimore.  Fuck me with a spoon…

UPDATE 2: Apparently now they’re not close.  Thanks to Blandy and Ryan for the story.  You can remove the spoon now.

Jays Designate Rommie Lewis for Assignment

In the BIGGEST news of the day for the Jays, the team has designated left-handed reliever Rommie Lewis for assignment, most likely to make room for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera on the 40-man roster after the Vernon Wells trade.

If Lewis is not claimed by another team the Jays could outright him to AAA, but could also release him.

If he stays somewhere in the organization, it is reasonable to assume that he’ll still compete for a spot in Toronto’s bullpen in the Spring, but that’s by no means a guarantee; left-handed pitchers tend to get snapped up quickly when placed on waivers.

Lewis had a 6.75 ERA and a 5.54 FIP in 14 games with the Jays last year, but did post a .230 opponents BA against lefties.

Wells traded to the Angels — Manny and Damon sign in Tampa

Leave it to me to say that there is no news in baseball right now.  As soon as I posted that Pujols piece, all hell broke loose.

The Toronto Blue Jays, led by noted ninja Alex Anthopoulos unloaded Vernon Wells and his gaudiest of gaudy contracts to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for catcher/DH/1B Mike Napoli and outfielder Juan Rivera.

On a pure talent level, the Angels may have an edge in this deal, but this was clearly a salary dump for Toronto.  They get out from under four years and $86-million owed to Vernon Wells and in return get two serviceable major-leaguers who fill urgent needs for 2011.  Beyond that, nothing is guaranteed to either player, giving the Jays much more financial flexibility going forward; Rivera is a free agent after this season and Napoli is still in his arbitration years.

The best part of this deal is that the Angels will take on all $86-million still owed to Wells.  The Jays get off.  Scott.  Free.

Juan Rivera can occupy one of the now empty outfield spots (probably leftfield, moving Snider to right) with Rajai Davis most likely manning center until Anthony Gose or Darin Matroianni are ready.  Rivera could also be flipped in another trade.

Napoli fits in nicely as an insurance policy behind the plate in case Arencibia shows signs of not being ready and if he is ready, he can DH and play occasional first base.

Napoli has very dramatic splits (.305/.399/.567 against lefties vs. .208/.277/.423 against righties) which set up some really nice platoon options for Toronto with Adam Lind at first base.

As the Wells news began to settle down, the Tampa Bay Rays popped up with some equally significant news; they signed both Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to one year contracts.  Damon’s deal is for $5.25-million and Manny’s is apparently for $2.0-million!!!!

I speculated earlier this week that Manny would get far more than $4-million and I really did think he’d get $6-$8-million.  Mind=blown.

I’m a little confused as to why the Rays would get both Manny and Damon considering neither can play outfield, but maybe they are planning an insane DH platoon, who knows?

Both players are still more than competent at the plate and to get them both for under $8-million is nothing less than very impressive.

The Rays and Jays are both fully aware of the kind of savvy it takes to compete in the AL East on a small budget and within minutes, they both showed you why.

A look at four polarizing Jays: Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill and the 2010 season

The Jays won a respectable 85 games in 2010 despite every prediction heaped upon them giving them little chance of finishing out of the AL East basement let alone with a winning record.

The predictions were warranted, after all, Toronto did trade its franchise’s most dominant pitcher in December 2009 to the Phillies for a package of prospects thought to be at least a year or two away from impacting the major-league team on the field.

I myself, in all my acknowledged fan bias, picked the Jays to finish last in the AL East with a 68-94 record.

For the record, I’m very glad I was wrong.

But is it realistic for fans of Canada’s team to think big in 2011?  Should we be happy with another .500ish season or do we want blood unless the team improves upon its 2010 win total, in other words contend for a wildcard?

Examining the elements that gave the Jays their best season since Eric Hinske won the Rookie of the Year and the likelihood of their repetition could allow us to see if the 2010 Jays were a fluke or a team ready to contend at any moment.

Let’s start with the good; Jose Bautista became the most unlikely 50 homer hitter of all time, Vernon Wells had a bounce-back season, John Buck was an All-Star, and the Jays’ young pitching staff outperformed all expectations.  Which of these is most likely to continue, which is most likely to fall back?

The bad?  After breakout 2009 campaigns, both Adam Lind and Aaron Hill took massive steps backward in 2010.  Was it an aberration or a sign of things to come?

For the sake of space, I’ll focus on the four most polarized position players in 2010: Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, and Aaron Hill.

Jose Bautista
A journeyman utility-player, Bautista was once known for being the only player in major-league history to have the dubious distinction of being on 5 different major-league rosters in one season, now the thing he’s most known for is being one of 26 players to hit 50 homers in a season; and the first Jay to do it.

People have already started comparing him to Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez, players who had one unbelievable season and then faded back into relative obscurity.  But is Bautista one of those players or will he put up all-star power numbers perennially?

Given that last year was only the second time Bautista accumulated enough at-bats to actually make a huge difference on the team, I think he’ll continue to put up decent numbers as long as he’s given the shot at playing every day, but there’s no way in hell he ever comes close to the numbers he put up last year.

Previous to 2010, Bautista had a career slash line of .238/.329/.400 compared to his 2010 numbers of .260/.378/.617.  There will most certainly be a regression, but I sort of see Bautista as an extreme comparison to Jayson Werth.

Werth, like Bautista, waited until his late 20s to compile a career year that far outperformed any previous season.  His wasn’t as drastic a breakout as Bautista’s, but I believe the comparison still holds true.  Werth has managed to compile a few good seasons and I expect the same for Bautista.  But late-bloomers tend to fizzle out early; I feel Werth and Bautista will both have very short peaks.

I honestly expect Bautista to slump back down to a stat line in the area of .250/.345/.500.  Not super-human like 2010, but still a solid .850 OPS guy.  I do expect a full regression by 2012 or 2013 so I’m desperately hoping the Jays don’t do something stupid like sign Joey Bats to a 7yr/$126-million extension or something.  Let the Yankees or some other team make that horrible deal.

It might even be smart of Toronto to trade Bautista if they’re not contending by July and he’s having another solid season.  The haul you’d get in return would be worth it.
Vernon Wells
Despite Parkes and Stoeten getting into a wicked sweet baseball blog battle for the ages over Wells’ recent comments to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, I could ultimately care less what he says off the field.

Parkes chastised Wells for being too complacent about his struggles and the fact that he hasn’t lived up to his massive contract, Stoeten, with much hilarity, decided Parkes was misreading what he said; I tend to agree with Stoeten on this one.

I’ve always kind of liked Wells’ bluntness and sometimes flippant attitude toward Toronto media and fans who give him a hard time.  I don’t see him as the type who cares about what people think of him, and I like that; even if his on-field performance can be downright maddening.

I don’t take his comments as complacency; I just think he’s stating the obvious.  I don’t see him as a lazy player and clearly his teammates don’t think so or they wouldn’t have made him their captain.

Saying something so obvious such as “I haven’t lived up to my contract” doesn’t necessarily mean that he doesn’t want to start living up to it as Parkes suggests, but I’m also not going to tell him to choose a new career because of his opinion. I digress.

Wells had a nice bounce-back year in 2010 after an ’09 that had fans of the team and pundits alike calling for his head on a platter.  He finished with a solid if not spectacular slash line of .273/.331/.515 and hit 30 homers for the first time since 2006, a year before signing the massive extension.  He recorded the second-highest WAR rating of his career at 4.0 and although he was still below average defensively, he managed to improve greatly over his previous two seasons, perhaps showing he was healthier than in previous years.

However, there are some troubling things about Wells’ 2010 that are worth mentioning.

Vernon got off to a torrid start.  Between Opening Night and May 9th, Wells compiled a .339/.406/.661 line to make for a 1.067 OPS.  He’d hit 9 homeruns and had driven in 25 in only 33 games.  He compiled a walk rate of 9.8% during that time.

From May 10th through to the end of the year, Wells had a much more pedestrian .255/.310/.475 line for a .785 OPS.  He hit 22 more homeruns while driving in 63 and saw his walk-rate drop nearly 3% to 7.1%.

If I was a betting man, I’d say the second set of numbers is more likely what you’ll see from Wells in 2011 and beyond.

But hey, it’s not all negative; Aaron Hill and Adam Lind each had breakout years in 2009, only to see horrid follow-up campaigns in 2010.  It’s conceivable to think that they could bounce back.

Aaron Hill
Hill’s lone positive for 2010, his 26 homeruns, is quickly negated by the fact that his OPS fell from .829 in 2009 to .665 in 2010.  His line drive percentage also took a nose-dive from 19.6% to 10.6%, being made up by a very high flyball rate of 54.2%.

The saving grace for Hill resides in the fact that his career line drive and flyball rates were closer to his 2009 numbers than his 2010 numbers, so there’s little reason to expect a continued rapid regression in that regard.  Also, his walk rate went up significantly in 2010 and his strike out rate was about at par with his career rate.

I don’t see why Hill can’t return to numbers consistent with the ones he posted in 2009, although don’t be expecting 36 home runs, there was a lot of luck involved in that total.

Adam Lind
Lind also saw a drastic drop across his slash line in 2010 after a break out ’09.  He went from .305/.370/.562 to .237/.287/.425.  His walk rate plummeted from 8.9% to 6.2% and his K rate went up nearly 7%.

Unfortunately, Lind’s 2010 strike out rate was more consistent with his career average, but his walk rate should rebound slightly.  His career rate, minors and majors combined heading into 2010 was just under 8%.

Lind had a BABIP well below league average while his line drive rate and flyball rate weren’t substantially worse from ’09 to ’10, which suggests that he suffered through a significant amount of bad luck in 2010.  In fact, his infield flyball rate was 3.9% better in 2010 than his 2009 rate, suggesting that he actually made solid contact as often as ever.

I expect all four of these players to settle back to happy mediums somewhere between their breakout/bounce-back years and their awful years directly before and after them.  That’s the great thing about this game, things even out.

To be honest, as the team stands now, I can’t see how they’ll improve over their 2010 season, but I also don’t see them taking a giant step back either; .500ish sounds about right to me.